BMW i3 goes ballistic
There were 4.358 new plug-ins sold in Norway last month, up 40% YoY, the November passenger car market share reached 32.5%, pulling the YTD EV Share close to 30%.
The BMW grabbed the headlines with a jaw-dropping score of 1.014 units, being only the second plug-in model to reach four digits in one month (The other one was the Tesla Model S, with 1.493 units in March '14 and then twelve months later, with 1.140 deliveries).
To have an idea on the size of the surge, the i3 delivered in one month the same number of units it had sold in the first six months of the year...
Speaking of the remaining best selling models, the #2 Outlander PHEV (387 units) has confirmed itself as a sure value, the same can be said about the #3 VW Golf GTE (378), while in Fourth we have a surprise, with the promising Hyundai Ioniq Electric delivering 282 units in its first real sales month, drying up its hybrid sibling sales, which registered only 39 units.
In fact, this is a Thing now in Norway, with several plug-in models swallowing their ICE relatives sales, like it was the case of the aforementioned Ioniq, but also the BMW 2-Series Act. Tourer (236 units for the PHEV version in November, 14 for the ICE versions), Mercedes B-Class (202 BEV's, 30 ICE's), Audi A3 (221; 49) or the Mitsubishi Outlander (387; 19), just to name a few. When will we see this mirrored elsewhere? 2020? 2021?
But we digress, back to the November Best Sellers, in Fifth Place we have the VW e-Golf with 244 units, its worst score in over two years, it seems buyers are waiting for the improved range 2017 e-Golf. Or is it for the 40 kWh Renault Zoe? Opel Ampera-e? Tesla Model 3?
One thing is for sure, all these models have four-digit-long waiting lists, with rumors that the Tesla has over 10.000 (!) reservations, so during the next two years we should see Norway reach 50% market share, if 2017 seems too early, 2018 and the boatloads of Model 3 arriving to Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, etc, should allow EV's to become the majority in sales, with the small detail that real world WLTP CO2 emissions should kick in around this same time, making ICE cars even more expensive.
To have an idea on the size of the surge, the i3 delivered in one month the same number of units it had sold in the first six months of the year...
Speaking of the remaining best selling models, the #2 Outlander PHEV (387 units) has confirmed itself as a sure value, the same can be said about the #3 VW Golf GTE (378), while in Fourth we have a surprise, with the promising Hyundai Ioniq Electric delivering 282 units in its first real sales month, drying up its hybrid sibling sales, which registered only 39 units.
In fact, this is a Thing now in Norway, with several plug-in models swallowing their ICE relatives sales, like it was the case of the aforementioned Ioniq, but also the BMW 2-Series Act. Tourer (236 units for the PHEV version in November, 14 for the ICE versions), Mercedes B-Class (202 BEV's, 30 ICE's), Audi A3 (221; 49) or the Mitsubishi Outlander (387; 19), just to name a few. When will we see this mirrored elsewhere? 2020? 2021?
But we digress, back to the November Best Sellers, in Fifth Place we have the VW e-Golf with 244 units, its worst score in over two years, it seems buyers are waiting for the improved range 2017 e-Golf. Or is it for the 40 kWh Renault Zoe? Opel Ampera-e? Tesla Model 3?
One thing is for sure, all these models have four-digit-long waiting lists, with rumors that the Tesla has over 10.000 (!) reservations, so during the next two years we should see Norway reach 50% market share, if 2017 seems too early, 2018 and the boatloads of Model 3 arriving to Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, etc, should allow EV's to become the majority in sales, with the small detail that real world WLTP CO2 emissions should kick in around this same time, making ICE cars even more expensive.
| Pl | Model | Sales |
| 1 | BMW i3 | 1.014 |
| 2 | Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV | 387 |
| 3 | Volkswagen Golf GTE | 378 |
| 4 | Hyundai Ioniq Electric | 282 |
| 5 | Volkswagen e-Golf | 244 |
Looking at the year-to-date ranking, if the first two positions seem already destined, with the Outlander PHEV preparing to be the first plug-in hybrid to wear the Best Seller jersey in Norway, the Third Spot is still open to discussion, with November bringing another change, with the VW Golf GTE and Nissan Leaf changing positions once again, this time to the advantage of the German (hot) hatch, recovering the Third Place, with both models separated by 127 units, the VW product is the favorite for the Bronze Medal, but it still has to keep an eye on the oldtimer, just to make sure it doesn't pull out some last minute trick and spoils the party.
The Audi A3 e-Tron climbed to #7, switching positions with the Tesla Model S, which is selling half of what it did in previous years, is the Californian car becoming tired in Norway? Unfavorable exchange rates? Or is it just a case of internal competition, as the fresh Tesla Model X is now the hippest thing on the EV block? The 122 deliveries of the SUV-Minivan-Sports Car seem to point that way, allowing it to climb to #14 on the plug-in ranking, while at the same time surpassing the BMW X5 PHEV and becoming the best selling Luxury SUV in this ranking. Not bad for a model that only arrived six months ago.
By the way, there will be some fiscal changes for 2017, which will have no impact on BEV's, but large PHEV's will become cheaper, so expect Luxury SUV's to become a hot topic next year (Volvo XC90, here's your chance to beat the Model X), while large ICE vehicles, like the VW Caravelle, will become more expensive (Expect large/medium plug-in SUV's and the Nissan Evalia to benefit from this).
In the second half of the chart, the recently arrived Hyundai Ioniq Electric is jumping positions, it is now #22, still trying to reach a Top 20 place by year end.
Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (29%, down 1%) is sure to add another Manufacturers trophy (The third in a row), followed from a far by the new Second Placed BMW (14%, up 2%), and then Mitsubishi (12%, down 1%) and Nissan (11%).
Looking at Fuel Cell numbers, Hyundai registered three FCEV's last month, with the Korean increasing the lead in the YTD count to six units (13 Hyundai vs 7 Toyota), despite the Mirai being a more recent product and have better specs.
| Pl | Norway | Nov. | YTD | % | '15Pl |
| 1 | Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV | 387 | 4.877 | 12 | 4 |
| 2 | Volkswagen e-Golf | 244 | 4.480 | 11 | 1 |
| 3 | Volkswagen Golf GTE | 378 | 4.032 | 10 | 6 |
| 4 | Nissan Leaf | 238 | 3.905 | 9 | 3 |
| 5 | BMW i3 | 1.014 | 3.533 | 8 | 5 |
| 6 7 8 | Volkswagen Passat GTE Audi A3 e-Tron Tesla Model S | 173 221 48 | 2.393 1.914 1.788 | 6 5 4 | 20 7 2 |
| 9 | Renault Zoe | 100 | 1.743 | 4 | 8 |
| 10 | Mercedes B250e | 202 | 1.727 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 12 | BMW 225xe Active Tourer Kia Soul EV | 236 95 | 1.240 1.122 | 3 3 | N/A 11 |
| 13 | Volkswagen e-Up! | 128 | 1.037 | 2 | 9 |
| 14 15 16 | Tesla Model X Mercedes C350e BMW X5 40e | 122 62 53 | 1.005 967 938 | 2 2 2 | N/A 22 19 |
| 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 | Volvo V60 Plug-In Volvo XC90 T8 Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia * Mercedes GLC350e Audi Q7 e-Tron Hyundai Ioniq Electric Peugeot iOn BMW 330e Mitsubishi I-Miev Citröen C-Zero Mercedes GLE500e Peugeot Partner EV Renault Kangoo ZE Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Renault Twizy Ford Focus Electric BMW i8 Smart Fortwo ED Citröen Berlingo EV Others | 68 1450 74 35 282 28 17 26 12 3 16 9 3 5 1 9 5 | 708 686683 622 367 353 328 290 268 208 158 135 127 104 71 47 35 33 29 42 | 2 22 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 | 12 N/A14 N/A N/A N/A 13 N/A 26 16 27 18 17 24 29 21 25 15 23 |
| TOTAL | 4.358 | 41.995 | 100 |
* - 24 Pass + 26 Lcv
Hat tip to Terje for the help on the 2017 changes!
Models breakdown by Fuel Source
| Pl | Model | Sales |
| 1 | BMW i3 | 1.014 |
| 2 | Toyota RAV4 | 513 |
| 3 | Volkswagen Tiguan | 406 |
| 4 | Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV | 387 |
| 5 6 78 9 10 | Volkswagen Golf GTE Skoda Octavia Toyota Auris Toyota Yaris Volkswagen Golf ICE Hyundai Ioniq Electric | 378 348 320 311 283 282 |
With some 30% share, plug-ins performance in the general ranking is more relevant than ever, besides the obvious result of the BMW i3, absolute leader in November, of the 905 units sold by the Best Seller VW Golf last month, only 283, or 31%, didn't had a plug.
Splitting models by fuel source, November was the Third consecutive time that a BEV was the Best Seller, following on the Tesla Model X leadership in September, the BMW i3 was #1 in the last two months, and by the way, all units delivered were 100% electric in these last two months.
In the following positions we have three SUV's, all with different powertrains, the #2 RAV4 is a regular hybrid, the #3 Tiguan is pure ICE (When will VW release the GTE version?), while the #4 Outlander PHEV is plug-in hybrid. This is like saying that customers want SUV's, no matter how they get their propulsion...
The remaining plug-ins in the Top 10 are the VW Golf GTE, #6 with 378 units and the recently arrived Hyundai Ioniq Electric, showing up at #10, with 282 units.
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