New Models for 2017 (& their impact)

A Segment (City Cars)


Renault Twingo ZE

With the five best selling models in this segment coming from China, the upcoming Smart ForTwo / ForFour ED models and Renault Twingo ZE will have a hard time to reach a Podium seat, let alone winning this class, so 2017 should be decided between the Chinese models, maybe between a Zotye model and the Chery eQ.

B Segment (Subcompacts)

Nissan Micra

The promised EV version of the new Nissan Micra will face stiff competition next year, starting with its Renault Zoe relative, with the current Best Seller, the BMW i3, expected to receive a facelift and yet another battery upgrade, the Japanese hatch won't be able to reach these two, but it could have a small shot at stealing the Third Place from the BAIC E-Series.

C Segment (Compacts)

Toyota Prius Prime

The heart of the market will be a hard fought battleground, with plenty of new models with Best Seller ambitions, like the Chevrolet Bolt/Opel Ampera-e (After a long thought, i have decided to place it here, as it is more than just an MPV and more spacious than B-Segment cars), the facelifted Nissan Leaf, the Toyota Prius Prime...Without forgetting the Chinese outsiders (BYD Qin, BAIC EU260).

With such strong competitors, one thing is certain, whoever wins this class, will surely win also the 2017 Best Selling EV title.

D Segment (Midsize)

Tesla Model 3

The Next Big Thing, the EV that everyone is talking about, will land in 2017, but mass production will only start in the following year, so the Tesla Model 3 won't make a big impact this year. The Ford Fusion Energi will probably collect another Best Seller title in 2017, but it will have to keep an eye on the German midsizers, particularly the increasingly successful BMW 330e.

E Segment (Full Size)

BMW 530e

The German Autobahn-bruisers finally grew a (Small) plug, with the recent Mercedes E350e and future BMW 530e trying to put a fight to the all-conquering Tesla Model S, but if they reach one fifth of the sales of the American, it will be a job well done. 

As for the big Volvo's, the S/V90 PHEV will be happy if they beat the German models.

F Segment (Full Size Luxury)

Porsche Panamera

A lot of new stuff here, we will have an upgraded Mercedes S500e, the recent BMW 740e, the new Porsche Panamera PHEV, Cadillac CT6 PHEV, the upcoming Audi A8 PHEV...

If this year the title is headed for the Mercedes, next year it will be an open question, please make your bets...

SUV / CUV

BYD Song EV

After a slew of new plug-in SUV's and Crossovers in 2016, this year seems quieter, the current leaders BYD Tang and Outlander PHEV will probably be beaten by a Tesla Model X in full swing, while the important BYD Song and Yuan Crossovers will also make an impact in the class, possibly running for a Top 5 spot.

MPV / Minivans

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid

The Pacifica Hybrid has a huge sales potential, but will depend on the FCA will to sell and make it, if the oldtimer BYD e6 sustains momentum in 2017 (It has sold some 20k in '16), then the Chrysler won't reach the Best Seller status, but it should be enough to run head-to-head with the BMW 225xe Active Tourer for Second Place, all while leaving the Ford C-Max Energi out of the Podium.

LCV / Vans

Nissan e-NV200

In a segment dominated by just two models, the Renault Kangoo ZE and Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia, and with both receiving the same upgraded battery (Around 40 kWh), things should remain the same as in 2016, with both models running against each other for this class title.

Sports Cars / Convertibles

BMW i8 Spyder

After putting to shame the little competition it had over these last three years, the BMW i8 is almost synonymous with this category, for 2017 it is said to receive some upgrades, namely a 10 kWh battery, more power and the long awaited Spyder version.

Pick-up Trucks

Tesla Model T????

With the end of the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck, of which were made some 1.000 units over a four year span, this highly profitable class is now orphan of plug-ins, with the Best Selling Electric Pick-up Truck still dating back for the Dinosaur Era (Ford Ranger EV, with 1.705 units delivered from 1998 to 2002).

 It seems we all have to wait for Tesla to shake things up with a Tesla Model T in 2020...

2016 Forecasts - Q3 Update

In the beginning of the year, i published some forecasts regarding 2016 that me and my partners from EV Volumes made, let's see how they are, now that we are at three quarters of the year:

2016 Forecasts Jose Roland Viktor 1) World Total 850.000 850.000 N/A 2) World #1 BYD Tang Mit. Outlander PHEV N/A 3) China Total 400.000 350.000 350.000 4) China #1 BYD Tang BYD Tang BYD Tang 5) USA Total 175.000 170.000 170.000 6) USA #1 Chevrolet Volt Chevrolet Volt Tesla Model S 7) Japan Total 30.000 23.000 38.000 8) Japan #1 Nissan Leaf Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 9) Europe Total 250.000 280.000 280.000 10) Europe #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 11) Netherlands T. 27.500 35.000 35.000 12) Netherlands #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 13) Norway Total 45.000 50.000 50.000 14) Norway #1 Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf Volkswagen e-Golf 15) UK Total 40.000 40.000 45.000 16) UK #1 Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV Mit. Outlander PHEV 17) France Total 37.500 42.000 40.000 18) France #1 Renault Zoe Renault Zoe Renault Zoe 19) Germany Total 37.500 44.000 35.000 20) Germany #1 VW Passat GTE Kia Soul EV Kia Soul EV

1) With registrations at over 510k now and sales up 45% YoY, we get some 800k...Not that far off, then.

2) Nissan Leaf is #1 right now, but the difference to the Tesla Model S is minimal, and with the Californian at full speed, we should see the Model S repeat last year win. 

3) Sales are at 225k, and considering the end of the year peak, we should see it reach 400k by year end. One for me.

4) BYD Tang is #1, with 19k, with the #2 (BYD Qin) 8k behind...Enough said. One for each.

5) The US market is growing 33%, which is leading to a 154k total number, which is 16k below expected. Then again, the Chevy Bolt  and Prius Prime might still pull the market up in the last minute, right?

6) With the Model S at 20k and the Chevrolet Volt at 16k, i believe Tesla has this one secured. One for Viktor.

7) With Japan down 2%, they are set to a 25k total number. One for Roland.

8) With the Leaf at 11k and the Outlander PHEV at 4k, Nissan's hatch has 99% probability of winning the 2016 title. One for me.

9) The European EV Market is set to end at around 240k, a bit below our forecasts.

10) With the Zoe at 16k, the Outlander PHEV at 15k and the Leaf around 13k, it is too early to give a sure winner, but at the moment the Zoe is the favorite.

11) Sales are down 54%(!), so the total number should be around 15-20k, much lower than our forecasts.

12) Another big miss, right now the most likely Best Sellers are the Tesla Model S or the Volvo XC90 T8.

13) I remember we had some difficulty doing this forecast, as we were afraid to be too conservative, but with growth at just 32%, the market is going according to our forecasts, for 45k-50k by year end. One for all.

14) The VW e-Golf might still be #1, but for now, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is ahead.

15) The UK market is up some 42% and headed to some 40k, it seems Brexit hasn't impacted the EV Market growth. One for me and Roland.

16) The Outlander PHEV will be #1 with 75% certainty, but the Mercedes C350e might still surprise. One for all.

17) The French EV market is up 38%, leading to some 39k. One for Viktor.

18) No surprises here, the Renault Zoe has 8k, the #2 Nissan Leaf has 3k. One for all.

19) Looking just at the growth rate (20%), this market would go for some 30k, but with the recent surge, expect an increase in sales, so expect sales to end between 30k to 40k. 

20) Quite frankly, anything can happen, the Renault Zoe is the current leader, but the BMW i3 is coming in strong, and even the Kia Soul EV might come out of nowhere and steal the show at the last minute.

New Models for the Rest of 2015

New Models for the Second Half of the Year

Pure electrics have been resisting quite well to the new wave of PHEV's, mostly thanks to Tesla and the Nissan Leaf, but in the second half of year more Plug-in Hybrids will arrive, and PHEV Share should rebound, not only the refreshed Chevrolet Volt will make its impact, but there's a bundle of new PHEV's coming, particularly SUV's, and only one pure electric to help balance the numbers:

BYD Tang - The manufacturer claims this SUV has even more demand than the Qin, so the chinese  EV leadership should belong to it in the future. Sales target for this year: 15.000.

Chevrolet Volt II - Pushing the plug-in sales boundaries (only) in America, the second generation of the Volt could reach some 10.000 units this year and then step up in 2016.

Tesla Model X - Its production has been pushed back so many times that people wonder if it will land this year, after all there isn't still an official picture of the Real Deal, but having faith that deliveries do start as promised, in September, expect small numbers in the beginning, as Tesla will watch closely how the Falcon Wings Doors behave. Sales target for 2015: 4.000 units.

Volkswagen Passat GTE - There hasn't been many plug-ins in this particular segment, but the recent arrival of the Mercedes C-Class PHEV is just the first of many new players preparing to enter the game, the Passat GTE is another addition, based on the success of the regular Passat and of the Golf GTE, i think this has all the ingredients to replicate their success and reach some 3.000 units.

Hyundai Sonata Plug-In - The Korean automaker has arrived late to the plug-in train, is it ready to pick-up on the lost time? The Sonata PHEV is the first model on which we can evaluate if the Korean brand is going plug-in for real or not. Kia has only sold 1.500 Soul EV this year, so we'd better not expect a lot from these guys...Sales target: 1.500 units

BMW X5 Plug-In - The fourth plug-in of the BMW stable, it will be a strong contender for the Premium SUV PHEV trophy, but the Cayenne has already a big lead for this years trophy. Sales target: 1.500 units.

Volvo XC90 Plug-In - The regular XC90 is having an overwhelming reception and the T8 (PHEV) version waiting list is getting longer and longer...If Volvo can make them fast enough, i would say that some 1.500 units could be registered this year.

Audi Q7 e-Tron - Another addition to the Premium barge large SUV niche, Audi is looking to replicate the plug-in A3 in a XXL format. Sales target: 1.500 units.

BYD Song and Yuan - These smaller plug-in SUV's were shown earlier this year and the question remains: Will they arrive in time to land this year? If so, will they sell in significant numbers? My guess is a December launch, just in time to enter this year ranking.

Markets Roundup December 2014 (Special Edition)

I. A Year Ago - Hits and Misses

A year ago, i made some forecasts regarding 2014, let's see how they worked out:

USA

* Leaf will be #1 - Hit;

* Ford will fight for #1 in the brands ranking - It was #2, slightly ahead of Chevrolet, but 7% behind Nissan;

* 130-150.000 sales for the US EV market - 119.804 units, slightly below the prediction boundaries.

Japan

* Close fight between Nissan Leaf and the Outlander PHEV - Not really, Mitsu as a brand stayed 2.000 units behind Nissan's hatch;

* 36-39.000 units - 32.418 sales, big disappointment.

France

* Renault Zoe #1 - How hard could it be to forecast this one?

* 15-18.000 units - 16.294 sales, the final push allowed this one to hit the spot.

Germany

* BMW i3 and VW e-Up! and e-Golf running for #1 with the Smart ED - The i3 won the Best Seller trophy, but the other two stayed behind Smart, all while being also outrun by the foreigner Renault Zoe.

* 10.000 sales for the German EV Market - 13.242 sales, (finally) well above expectations. 

Netherlands

* Volvo and Mitsubishi will fight for #1 - The Outlander PHEV was responsible for 50% of all plug-in sales here, while Volvo was Second with 21% share. Big difference; 

* Somewhere between 15-19.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - 15.270 sales, not a disappointment, but nothing to brag about...

Norway

* Close fight between the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, VW e-Golf and Mitsu Outlander PHEV - The Leaf (7 times monthly Best-Seller) proved to be pretty resilient, resisting the Model S (3 times Best Seller) and the e-Golf (2 times) attacks and ending in the leadership, with 24% share, 4% ahead of the american car and double the sales of the e-Golf. As for the SUV, it was the best-selling PHEV, but only #6 in the ranking, plug-in hybrids still have a long way to go in Norway;

* Volkswagen will win the Manufacturers Title - Hit;

* EV Share between 12-14% in Norway - 13,93%, coming along the best expectations. 

China

* BYD Qin #1 - Only Kandi could threaten the Qin leadership, and even then, it didn't scared too much; 

* Somewhere between 23-28.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - Some 60.000 units, the Big Forecast Miss Of The Year, did anyone saw this coming?

II. Engines of Growth

* By EV Share 

One of them is pretty easy to discover, after all, the Norwegian EV performance is profusely documented (13,93% in '14 vs 6,10% in '13), but there were other surprises, like Sweden (1,66% in '14 vs 0,71% in '13) or Estonia (1,57% vs 0,68%). But the most impressive market is Iceland, with the EV Share in Iceland jumping from 0,21% in 2012, to 0,94% in '13, to 2,71 last year! With all the hydro-thermal energy they have and the small distances associated to an island, EV sales in Iceland should continue to grow exponentially and maybe become something like a Second Norway...

* By Volume

EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case China made all the headlines, with 40.000 more units being sold in 2014 than in the previous year...

The USA progress (A 20K increase) looks small by comparison, but it was still the Second largest, ahead of Norway (From 9 to 20K), and the surprising UK (4 to 14K!), even Germany progressed significantly, with an increase of Seven Thousand units.


III. 2014 vs 2013

Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2013:

Volt - Canada (Winner since 2011)

Leaf - USA (In '13 - Volt); Japan (Like in 2011 and 2013); Norway (Like in 2012 and 2013); Spain (Like in '13); Denmark (Like in '13); Italy (Twizy in '13); Estonia (Leaf in '13); Iceland (Leaf); Ireland (Leaf since 2011).

Outlander PHEV - Netherlands (Like in 2013); UK (Leaf won in 2013); Sweden (V60 Plug-In in '13); Australia (Leaf in '13); Finland (V60 Plug-In); New Zealand (I-Miev).

Zoe - France (Like in 2013); Austria (Like in '13).

BMW i3 - Germany (In '13 - Smart Fortwo ED); Hong Kong (Fluence ZE in '13); Portugal (Twizy); Czech Republic (Leaf); Poland (Leaf).

Model S - Switzerland (In '13 - Zoe); Belgium (V60 Plug-in).

Renault Samsung SM3 ZE - South Korea (Like in '13).
BYD Qin - China (In '13 - QQ3 EV).

Examining this, we can that Chevy Volt only resists in Canada, losing the USA for the Leaf, but the japanese hatch loses the UK and Australia for the Outlander PHEV, Mitsu's SUV also steals two of the three trophies the V60 (Sweden(!) and Finland), with the other (Belgium) being lost for Tesla, which also collected the Swiss #1, the Renault Zoe resisted in France and Austria, while the Twizy simply disappeared from the map. Finally, the BMW i3 has won its domestic market, while also collecting some secondary markets.


IV. Other Markets

For some reason (Low volumes, rare data, etc) some markets have been left-out, here is a chance to know some of them:

Israel: 6 Nissan Leaf sold in 2014, while last year, there had been 436 Renault Fluence ZE sold, as well as 24 Nissan Leaf. This market is the sole market where EV's are having a bad time.

Slovenia: Tesla Model S - 13(!) units; Opel Ampera (2); Peugeot iOn (1); BMW i3 (1). Brilliant performance by Tesla, something that Nicola Tesla would be proud of...The existing Tesla Supercharger in Slovenia should also help, of course. Anyway, 0.05% EV Share is how this small market currently stands, with talks that VW will finally join it, things could only get better in 2015!

Brazil: Renault Twizy - 34 units; BMW i3 (30). These are the first steps of a market with tremendous potential, will 2015 be the Year Zero?

Turkey: Renault Twizy - 18 units. Far from the 92 Renault Fluence ZE registered in 2012, the Turkish EV slowly rebounding from the 2013 sales slump (Only one unit sold then).

UAE: Renault Twizy - 33 units; BMW i8 (1). Yes, plug-ins have arrived here, and the i8 should sell like hot cakes here, thanks to its appealing design.

Slovakia: Nissan Leaf - 24 units.

Morocco: Renault Twizy - 35 units. Building on the 7 units registered in 2013, the french thingy is creating a small market for it here, maybe Renault should invest in promting the Twizy in warmer-climate countries, where the lack of real windows don't impact so much.


V. Predictions for the G8

USA - 150.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

Japan - 32.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

France - 19.000 units/year, Zoe #1;

Netherlands - 19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

Germany - 20.000 units/year, German Car #1;

China - 120.000 units/year, Qin #1.
Norway - 25.000 units/year, Leaf #1.

UK - 20.000 untis, Outlander PHEV #1.

EV Business Case Q2 - 2013

Now that Ford saw the price drop thing work for others, it now wants to see if it works on her (On the Focus EV?!?!) 

"Prices down, Sales up" Edition

That's pretty much what can be said about this Second Quarter of 2013, with most of the sales results in, it's time to measure the winners and losers of this Quarter:


The winner camp have one thing in common: Be it price drops (Nissan), generous discounts (GM) or a brand new model with an attractive price (Renault), all focused in the price factor and all profited from it.

Nissan - With sales of the Leaf at 70.000 units, they now can afford to drop prices without losing much money on it, because most of the ROI (Return-On-Investment) is done, add that to local production and the ever-lowering cost of batteries, and is surely to expect in the beginning of 2014 another nice price drop announcement from Nissan while it prepares the 2nd Gen Leaf. That's what's nice in being pioneer, while others are figuring out how to enter a new market, you're already thinking on the next level.

GM - Another pioneer of plug-ins, the Volt family is now nearing the 50.000 landmark and with it the ROI already allows some price drops in the form of discounts (Now) and lower MSRP (Later in the year). GM acted just when it was suffering competition from others (Read: Nissan Leaf) and Volt sales were dropping (1.483 sales in April). With the needed incentives in the US market, sales recovered and went back to late 2012 levels (3.056 units in June), although the European Operation is still lagging behind (Incentives, anyone?). When one doesn't want to change the establishment, the establishment forces you to change.

Renault - Profiting from its best EV sales month since May 2012 and climbing three positions in the brands ranking to #3 since the last Quarter, the french carmaker can thank greatly to its new addition, the Zoe, a dedicated B-Segment electric car that sold 1.387 units in June, already close from the 1.500 units/month that Renault's hopes to sell. While not enough to be profitable per se in the short term, it should help the french manufacturer global ROI in electric cars and batteries, as well as ensuring that EV's get a foothold in Europe. Renault hopes to secure with the Zoe the best-selling electric car title in the Old World and reach the break-even point.


The loser side has just one manufacturer, but an important one.

Mitsubishi - In the end of March, the japanese carmaker was running on all cylinders and was the second best selling brand, just 1% (19%) behind the leader Nissan (20%). Now, it's in fifth place in the manufacturers ranking, lost 8% share (It's now at 11%) and worst of all, none of its models entered the June Top 10...The now famous battery problems were the cause for this sales plunge and Mitsu hopes that consumer confidence on their products haven't got shaken from it when it resumes production of its new sales-champion: The Outlander PHEV, having sold in no time all production it made before the battery problems and with an extensive waiting list across the world, the japanese manufacturer hopes to sell some 4.000 units/month and profit with it from a favorable ROI on their batteries (Remember the car itself has ICE versions, so the cost there is much diluted). On the pure electric side, Mitsu sold 30.000 units of its MIEV battery pack on the "i" and Minicab models, so it would be a waste for them not to invest in a new generation of pure electric cars. CA-Miev, anyone? Mitsubishi career in Plug-ins is like a roller coaster, in 2009 and 2010 it was the sales leader, 2011 and 2012 it was relegated to a secondary role, in the beginning of 2013, when it was preparing itself to recover the #1 spot, all hell broke loose and it went down again. Will it rise again and fight for Number One? It sure has the potential for it... 

EV Business Case - Q1 2013

Tesla Supercharging Stations: Another Out-of-the-Box feature from Elon Musk firm. 

Now that 95% of this year Q1 data is available and looking at the business case of plug in cars, one can say that the only manufacturer making a profit with electric vehicles is Tesla, not only they are selling more than expected, the start up company is also selling each unit with a higher price than predicted, so the Q1 profit only comes as a natural consequence of that.

The rest of the market is trying not to lose much money in each unit sold, research and development costs are high, prices have to be realistic and the number of units sold are below expectations, with some CEO's discontent with these obstacles.

The truth is that it's a long hard road to electric profitability, but some are closer to than others, Nissan is now nearing 60.000 Leaf's sales (and let's not forget the additional 23.000 batteries sold by teammate Renault), allowing them to recover a good part of the investment and along with other measures, reduce the Leaf's price. Now with the production distributed by three factories, if (and that's a big "IF") they can produce some 2.000 units per factory, we are talking 6.000 units a month and 72.000/year, numbers that can put Nissan on the verge of  EV break even point by the end on 2014.

Will the tiny Spark make a difference on GM's electric strategy?

GM is also taking the same path thanks to the Volt project, but it's lagging behind Nissan, right now they are at 40.000 plus units of the Volt family and this year sales are below 2.000 units/month, as the increased competition dents on Volt sales.

GM has two ways to increase the investment recovery: A price reduction to increase sales (Still too early, maybe for the end of the year) or diversification with new models. With the Chevrolet Spark EV and the upcoming Cadillac ELR arriving this year, this looks to be the path followed by The General. If the ELR doesn't need to be a best seller, because of its premium price, for the Spark they will have to sell a lot of them for the model to be important to the GM EV strategy, and right now those large numbers seem rather questionable. For now the break even point for GM looks at least some three years away, maybe on the 2nd gen Volt...

As for Toyota, despite having sold more than 30.000 units of the Prius PHEV, they're not really that deep into plug-ins, regular hybrids are their (profitable) business and the PHEV version is just an extension of that program, so don't expect for Toyota to present new products in this segment, although putting a plug in a Prius Alpha/V/Plus shouldn't be much of an effort, right? (Wink, wink)

My 2013 EV Markets Preview

After making my predictions over the general trends in the EV market and the models that could be gamechangers, and updating it with the latest Roewe and Cadillac offerings, now it's time to preview the behavior of the major markets and which countries could be the surprises of the year:

USA - There's a lot going on here, if we count the same level of sales from the usual suspects (Volt, Prius, Leaf...) at 55K, i'm predicting some extra 15K from the C-Max, 6K from the Fusion and 12K from Tesla. Add that to 3K from other new launches (Accord, Cadillac ELR...) and we easily have more than 90.000 sales in 2013, so i'm counting the US EV market to reach some 90 to 110K units;

Japan - Probably reaching some 23.000 units in 2012, up from 18K in the year before, 2013 will see the arrival of the Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In Hybrid that might add some 6K sales to a faily stable market, although the I-Miev should struggle to keep sales at their '12 level. So, adding 6 to the current 23K, we have  around 29.000 units for the japanese EV market;

France - The sales level of the french market will depend on the impact of the Renault Zoe and how much will it steal from the current players in the market. So, if assuming that the rest of the market stays stable at 12K and the Zoe collects between 2K to 4K units sold, we have a moderate growth to 14-16.000 EV's;  

Germany - Another market where things could get interesting, although sales will only takeoff in the 4Q after the arrival of the german offerings. Until then sales will grow modestly, with the Zoe animating the market. At some expected 7K sales from foreign brands and adding 2.5K units from the german newcomers (BMW i3, VW e-Up! or Mercedes B-class ED), we'll be looking at around 10.000 units, a good prologue year before the real departure of the german EV market in 2014;

Netherlands - One of the markets where EV's are most successful and where the Opel Ampera is climbing the overall ranking, it's to expect that both the Ampera and the Prius Plug-In will keep on growing their sales, adding 1.000 units each, just like the Tesla Model S, an expected hit here. If the other models on the market also grow another 1.000 cars, we are looking at 9.000 sales, a good result that could keep this market on the forefront of the Plug-In Evolution.

Norway - With a great 3% of the general market, this scandinavian country is considered the epicenter of the electric revolution, thanks in big part to the success of the Nissan Leaf, now a usual name in the best selling rankings. And this year, another pure electric is expected to make a splash here, Norway is just behind the US in orders of Tesla's Model S, so expect it to go from 1.500 to 3.000 cars sold here. Add these to another 1.000 from the successful Prius Plug-In and we have between 7 to 8.500 sales. If the top limit is reached, we'll be talking about a 6% EV share! 

As possible surprises this year, China certainly promises to be one of them, it ended 2012 beating  the alltime record at 848 units and this year it is expected to be flooded with new models (Venucia e30, Springo, BYD Qin...), so it won't be difficult to see the chinese market EV jump from 3.000 to 10.000 sales. Australia is another market expected to grow exponentially thanks to the Holden Volt introduction, sales should grow from a measly 253 sold last year to some 2.000 units, if not more.

All in all, the world EV market will likely grow to some 200.000 units this year, almost doubling sales from the year before. And you the viewers, what do you think?

My 2013 EV Preview

Opel Ampera

Based on what the media said that this year was going to be like, with one side, known as tree huggers reporting that EV sales would stratospherically climb to record heights, and some manufacturers hoping saying that this was the year of the electric car, while the other side of the spectrum, like Fox News, was classifying this type of vehicle like a fad, forecasting that sooner than later, they would disappear again in the ocean of bad ideas, just like they did by the end of the 90's, early 00's.

Well, with more than 100.000 units sold from January until November, how does it look the EV market?

First fact: Pure electric cars (BEV) like Nissan Leaf aren't growing that much, if at all, range anxiety is a reality, price tags are still on the high side and they suffer the competition from improved gas powered cars and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV), which leads us to...

Second Fact: Until November, Plug-In Hybrids grew by more than 300%! Not only the Volt family removed Nissan Leaf from the #1 spot this year, but also Toyota Prius PHEV got in it's first year the #2 EV spot, leaving the Nissan in a surprising third place. And for the first time, there were more plug-in hybrid sales (55.000) than pure electrics (52.000). This leads me to think that people prefer to have a middle term between gas and electrics vehicles, even if they have to sacrifice the EV range.

Deep down, both ends of the spectrum were wrong, people didn't started to buy EV's just because they existed, but the electric thing isn't going away anytime soon, as sales keep growing in a steady pace, reaching more and more countries and next year there will be new manufacturers joining the party, with the existing ones reinforcing the investments, contributing for the EV market to grow from the 120.000 units of 2012 to some 180-220.000 by the end of next year.

Let's see some of these new models:

Cadillac ELR - Well, hello gorgeous! One of the most handsome cars to be launched this year and certainly the first Cadillac that doesn't remind of J.R. Ewing of Dallas or rap music celebrities, this is the real entry of the storied marque in the XXI century, too bad it will cost some 60.000$...

GM Springo - It's design didn't came from the future like a Fisker Karma, but being derived from a conventional car can be a quality, especially a popular one like the Chevrolet Sail, because it assures that it can be sold cheaper and in this case, "cheap" is an important asset. Although without a Chevrolet badge, this EV is part of GM's worldwide strategy and was made with the chinese market in mind. If it can crack that market, there's a open road to make it a major EV seller. But that is a big "if".

Renault Zoe - The fourth musketeer in Renault's charge in the electric market, this is the car that will decide if Carlos Ghosn push into BEV was visionary or not. A handsome B segment with 210 kms range for just 21.000 € (plus a monthly battery fee), apparently the Zoe as it all to become the best selling EV in Europe.

Ford C-Max Plug-In - This was launched just a couple of months ago and it's already making an impact on the US market, previewing a great 2013 for Ford on the EV front. Along with the Fusion Plug-in, these two cars will put the Blue Oval as challenger in the US market, preparing the way for a worldwide distribution and become Ford an EV global player.

Tesla Model S - If there is a poster car for the electric revolution, this is it. Great looks on the outside, spacious on the inside, powerful, and above all, with an unparalleled electric range, this is a car intended to be the best car in the world. It's not going to top ranking sales, but it will do wonders for EV visibility.For some reason Toyota and Daimler-Mercedes have agreed collaborations with start-up Tesla...

BYD Qin - Same goal as the Springo, different approach. Instead of a conventional design borrowed from a conventional  gas powered car, this is one stands out (especially the back) and has a Plug-In Hybrid powerplant instead of a pure electric approach. Visually appealing for chinese standards, the Qin has 315 hp in Hybrid mode, making it 2 seconds (0-62 in 6.9s) faster than the Chevrolet Volt. All things considered, it has a real chance to be successful outside its home market. Will it sell more more than its predecessor (F3 DM) in China? Probably, the question is how much.

Roewe E50 - Finally someone other than BYD playing the Plug-In game in China. Despite a low-profile launch last December, this funky little hatch delivered a good starting month at 238 cars, so BYD could have  a worthy contender here.

BMW i3 - The first true electric car from the bavarian maker, when it arrives to the market it will satisfy the ones who look for sporty DNA and the latest in technology (Built with carbon-fiber plastic), but don't mind to pay more for that. The question is how much more urbanites are willing to pay for it.

Volkswagen e-Up! - VW is coming late to the electric party, but it hopes to make an entrance with a splash and one of the first models will be this, an electrified version of the tiny Up!. With a promised price tag of 24.000 €, the e-Up! will help EV's popularity in Europe and especially in Germany, EU's largest market.

Volvo V60 Plug-In Hybrid - One of the favorite combos in Europe are station wagons with a diesel engine, so it isn't rocket science to think that adding electricity to that combination can be a sales success, so Volvo went for it and the first 1.000 units were sold even before the first car was delivered. The carmaker expects to sell 5.000 units in 2013, but i think that in this case actual sales will be stronger than the manufacturer's forecasts.